13 leagues · 13,194 matches rated · 521 teams
Football probabilities you can audit.
Every prediction is timestamped before kickoff and sealed into a daily hash chain. Nothing is edited afterwards — including the ones we get wrong.
Free to read. No account needed.
No fixture is priced yet. The next kickoff appears here as soon as the current season's fixtures sync and the model publishes its first probabilities.
Published before, not after
Predictions are written to an append-only database. Editing or deleting one is impossible — the database rejects it.
Losses shown in full
Every settled pick is public, including drawdowns. No deleted tips, no cherry-picked date ranges.
Judged on closing value
We publish CLV — whether our price beat the market's close. It proves an edge long before profit can.
Next 48 hours
Today's board
Home · draw · away in one bar. Fair odds are what our probability implies before bookmaker margin.
No priced fixtures in the next 48 hours. The board fills as the current season's fixtures sync and the model publishes — quiet boards are normal, and we don't fill them with guesses.
Nothing settled yet
The record
Updated automatically. Nothing here is entered by hand.
The ledger starts empty and earns its history. Picks are paper-traded in silence first; every one that settles appears here, win or lose.
How it works
The model prices the match
Team ratings across every league, connected by cup and continental matches, then a goals model where the data supports one.
We compare it to the market
Bookmaker odds are stripped of margin. A gap only counts if it clears that league's threshold — higher where data is thin.
The pick comes with a stake
Each value pick carries a suggested stake: quarter-Kelly of your bankroll, capped at 2%.
How good is it? In a walk-forward backtest over 9,527 past matches (results through 1 Jun 2025), the outcome the model rated most likely happened 51.3% of the time. See the full accuracy report · Team ratings
Leagues covered now
Straight answers
See the board. Check the record. Decide for yourself.
The record is public, losses and all — the same for everyone who reads it.